Hungary has come through the financial crisis as somewhat of an unusual success story. As the country entered the Great Recession saddled by the largest external debt burden in the European region, its bonds, equity markets and currencies took a major hit which lasted years. Hungary became the country that analysts loved to hate, as the poor economic outlook was…
Brazil is a macroeconomic and political hot mess at the moment, experiencing a deep recession and a political quagmire reaching to the Presidency. Despite this, after a horrendous performance in 2015, Brazil’s currency the real performed best in the world for the first quarter of 2016 surging over 10% against the US dollar, and both equity and debt markets rallied…
Japan represents an anomaly among the world’s economies, and while its economic characteristics haven’t changed much over the last few decades, the performance of its various asset markets has definitely gone through major gyrations. The economy is unique in that it has barely grown for decades, suffers from an aging population and poor demographics, and has had near zero inflation…
Officials from the G20 – the group of twenty of the arguably most economically significant countries in the world – meet twice a year to discuss important global issues and to suggest possible policy responses. For financial markets, these events are often observed but are typically of little consequence to investors; by the time governments get around to meeting and…
The U.S stock markets have been oscillating between mayhem and malaise in 2016. In early days the volatility was blamed on China and its erratic stock markets. Volatility remains elevated, but malaise has set in as data last week confirmed fears of a slowdown in the U.S. economy. In the final quarter of 2015, the economy decelerated to a mere…
When I think of all the mayhem that is currently Chinese markets, I picture the old Dutch proverb about the boy who sticks his finger in the leaking hole of a dam, only to be besieged by more holes bursting through. In my analogy, the surging water represents the Chinese economy, and the dam represents the central government’s mass of…
A new era is beginning in Argentina, now that the Kirchner dynasty was finally voted out of office in November. President Mauricio Macri has vowed extensive change for the country, in areas ranging from foreign policy to the domestic economy, advocating an increased role for the private sector at the expense of a reduced role for the government. Argentine assets…
Two weeks ago I traveled to South Africa, in order to create a two-year economic and investment roadmap. After seven days of meetings, I returned with a bearish view for the economy both cyclically and structurally. Unlike previous visits over the past decade, I could find very few glimmers of hope. Gloom is hard to trade on, as the timeframe…
Driving into the gas station this morning, I was thrilled to see I could fill up my car with top-grade gasoline for under $3.00 a gallon (and yes, that is much higher than the U.S. average since I have the fortune to pay Connecticut taxes). With today's news from OPEC, it looks like I can enjoy "cheap" gas for months…
Central banks are supposed to manage economies over the medium term - through business cycles that last at least months but typically run years. Today, the U.S. central bank (the Fed) tells us it thinks the economy is strong enough to warrant a tiny rate hike, and while inflation is low, people still believe it will be normal in the…
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