When I think of all the mayhem that is currently Chinese markets, I picture the old Dutch proverb about the boy who sticks his finger in the leaking hole of a dam, only to be besieged by more holes bursting through. In my analogy, the surging water represents the Chinese economy, and the dam represents the central government’s mass of…
Two weeks ago I traveled to South Africa, in order to create a two-year economic and investment roadmap. After seven days of meetings, I returned with a bearish view for the economy both cyclically and structurally. Unlike previous visits over the past decade, I could find very few glimmers of hope. Gloom is hard to trade on, as the timeframe…
A few years ago I hurt my elbow, and after six weeks of pain, I finally went to the doctor. He gave me a few choices. First, he suggested I try physical therapy, some anti-inflammatory medicine, and lots of ice. With lots of work and attention, I would probably have pain for another 3-4 weeks and then slowly it would…
Investors have lost faith in Brazil, and rightfully so. The currency has lost 36% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year, plunging nearly 7% in the last week alone. Yields on its bond issues are spiking, as investors demand higher and higher rates to loan Brazil or Brazilian companies money. Just six years ago in November 2009, Brazil…
Big Move in China's Yuan Today! Value of the Chinese currency, the yuan, against the US dollar. Source: Bloomberg Global markets woke excited today after China’s central bank surprised the world by “forcing” a 1.9% weakening of its currency. Most currencies in the world move in a relatively free fashion, i.e. without significant intervention by a country’s central bank. A 2% one-day…
Back in the summer of 2013, when I was managing over US$10 billion in emerging markets (EM) fixed income assets, I looked around the industry at my fellow EM portfolio managers and saw a stunned group. In early May that year, Ben Bernanke shocked the world out of its complacency by announcing that the Federal Reserve was ready to taper its…
Income inequality is a hot topic globally, and a focal point in the U.S. especially after the 2008 financial crisis. Most popular policy prescriptions revolve around the campaign friendly topic of redistributing wealth: tax the rich, and send the money to the poor. In the last several months, many cities, states, and Presidential contenders have seized upon another policy tool:…
Ever play the game Jenga? The game begins with a carefully constructed tower of individual bricks, and then proceeds as each player removes a brick and tries to keep the structure together. Today’s headlines regarding the latest Greek bailout got me thinking about this maddening game, as I imagined Greece being removed from the Eurozone and the whole stack falling…
My Sister Is Greece, I am the Troika There’s always one black sheep in the family. In my family’s case, that sheep is my sister. While my two brothers and I have worked every day of our lives since we were 10 (started on the farm in Minnesota!), my sister has managed to be unemployed for all of her adult…
