Hungary has come through the financial crisis as somewhat of an unusual success story. As the country entered the Great Recession saddled by the largest external debt burden in the European region, its bonds, equity markets and currencies took a major hit which lasted years. Hungary became the country that analysts loved to hate, as the poor economic outlook was…
Brazil is a macroeconomic and political hot mess at the moment, experiencing a deep recession and a political quagmire reaching to the Presidency. Despite this, after a horrendous performance in 2015, Brazil’s currency the real performed best in the world for the first quarter of 2016 surging over 10% against the US dollar, and both equity and debt markets rallied…
Japan represents an anomaly among the world’s economies, and while its economic characteristics haven’t changed much over the last few decades, the performance of its various asset markets has definitely gone through major gyrations. The economy is unique in that it has barely grown for decades, suffers from an aging population and poor demographics, and has had near zero inflation…
By some measures, Spain has emerged from the crisis in the Eurozone, and by others, it still has a long way to go. Spain gained global notoriety in the midst of the Euro crisis as the country’s debt ratios (debt to GDP) more than doubled from 40% in 2008 to around 90% in 2013 as the government decided to rescue…
If you live in the United States, chances are you won’t be seeing negative interest rates at your local bank, at least for the foreseeable future. However, citizens in Europe and Japan face a real possibility of facing negative rates at their bank branches, as central banks in nine large countries have now set key rates below zero. Meanwhile, negative…
By now, many of us are experiencing a range of emotions regarding the ongoing sell-off in global stock markets. Only in rare cases does it make sense to panic and get rid of your holdings. Using my own professional and personal investment experience over the last few decades, I’ve put together a list of ten actionable items that may help.…
Two weeks ago I traveled to South Africa, in order to create a two-year economic and investment roadmap. After seven days of meetings, I returned with a bearish view for the economy both cyclically and structurally. Unlike previous visits over the past decade, I could find very few glimmers of hope. Gloom is hard to trade on, as the timeframe…
A few years ago I hurt my elbow, and after six weeks of pain, I finally went to the doctor. He gave me a few choices. First, he suggested I try physical therapy, some anti-inflammatory medicine, and lots of ice. With lots of work and attention, I would probably have pain for another 3-4 weeks and then slowly it would…
Investors have lost faith in Brazil, and rightfully so. The currency has lost 36% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year, plunging nearly 7% in the last week alone. Yields on its bond issues are spiking, as investors demand higher and higher rates to loan Brazil or Brazilian companies money. Just six years ago in November 2009, Brazil…
