Looking at the country through an economist’s lens, Mexico’s economy can be described as mostly predictable and rarely volatile. However, the same cannot be said of Mexico’s stock and bond markets and currency. Given strong links to the United States’ economy, Mexico’s macroeconomic variables tend to move broadly in conjunction with the ups and downs of its northern neighbor. When…
If you live in Coastal California, you don’t need national housing statistics to tell you that the housing market is in good shape – stick a “For Sale” sign in the yard and there are dozens of offers within a few days. If you are a seller or homeowner in the some of the less-than-hot spots, you can still take…
If you live in the United States, chances are you won’t be seeing negative interest rates at your local bank, at least for the foreseeable future. However, citizens in Europe and Japan face a real possibility of facing negative rates at their bank branches, as central banks in nine large countries have now set key rates below zero. Meanwhile, negative…
Two weeks ago I traveled to South Africa, in order to create a two-year economic and investment roadmap. After seven days of meetings, I returned with a bearish view for the economy both cyclically and structurally. Unlike previous visits over the past decade, I could find very few glimmers of hope. Gloom is hard to trade on, as the timeframe…
Central banks are supposed to manage economies over the medium term - through business cycles that last at least months but typically run years. Today, the U.S. central bank (the Fed) tells us it thinks the economy is strong enough to warrant a tiny rate hike, and while inflation is low, people still believe it will be normal in the…
With the markets awash with volatility these past few weeks, everyone is looking around for culprits and for saviors. The global economic recovery is once again faltering, as China’s engine of growth is sputtering and the rest of the world is worried about the consequences. As is becoming the norm in the post 2008 environment, central bankers are at the…
After experiencing a bull run for decades, the price of gold has been on an incessant decline since its high in 2011 – and is down a whopping 73% since then. Given prices plummeted around 5% in the last week alone, this shiny metal is making headlines both in popular and financial press. Is it time to buy? Besides its…
