Officials from the G20 – the group of twenty of the arguably most economically significant countries in the world – meet twice a year to discuss important global issues and to suggest possible policy responses. For financial markets, these events are often observed but are typically of little consequence to investors; by the time governments get around to meeting and…
If you live in the United States, chances are you won’t be seeing negative interest rates at your local bank, at least for the foreseeable future. However, citizens in Europe and Japan face a real possibility of facing negative rates at their bank branches, as central banks in nine large countries have now set key rates below zero. Meanwhile, negative…
When I think of all the mayhem that is currently Chinese markets, I picture the old Dutch proverb about the boy who sticks his finger in the leaking hole of a dam, only to be besieged by more holes bursting through. In my analogy, the surging water represents the Chinese economy, and the dam represents the central government’s mass of…
A new era is beginning in Argentina, now that the Kirchner dynasty was finally voted out of office in November. President Mauricio Macri has vowed extensive change for the country, in areas ranging from foreign policy to the domestic economy, advocating an increased role for the private sector at the expense of a reduced role for the government. Argentine assets…
Two weeks ago I traveled to South Africa, in order to create a two-year economic and investment roadmap. After seven days of meetings, I returned with a bearish view for the economy both cyclically and structurally. Unlike previous visits over the past decade, I could find very few glimmers of hope. Gloom is hard to trade on, as the timeframe…
A few years ago I hurt my elbow, and after six weeks of pain, I finally went to the doctor. He gave me a few choices. First, he suggested I try physical therapy, some anti-inflammatory medicine, and lots of ice. With lots of work and attention, I would probably have pain for another 3-4 weeks and then slowly it would…
Big Move in China's Yuan Today! Value of the Chinese currency, the yuan, against the US dollar. Source: Bloomberg Global markets woke excited today after China’s central bank surprised the world by “forcing” a 1.9% weakening of its currency. Most currencies in the world move in a relatively free fashion, i.e. without significant intervention by a country’s central bank. A 2% one-day…
Income inequality is a hot topic globally, and a focal point in the U.S. especially after the 2008 financial crisis. Most popular policy prescriptions revolve around the campaign friendly topic of redistributing wealth: tax the rich, and send the money to the poor. In the last several months, many cities, states, and Presidential contenders have seized upon another policy tool:…
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