The U.S stock markets have been oscillating between mayhem and malaise in 2016. In early days the volatility was blamed on China and its erratic stock markets. Volatility remains elevated, but malaise has set in as data last week confirmed fears of a slowdown in the U.S. economy. In the final quarter of 2015, the economy decelerated to a mere…
In just 15 trading days, oil prices have managed to plunge another 20%, after a fall of 29% in 2015 and 44% in 2014. While markets took these drops in stride in the past few years, something seems different about the volatile plunge so far in 2016. Why are oil prices so low? And why are the world’s asset markets…
When I think of all the mayhem that is currently Chinese markets, I picture the old Dutch proverb about the boy who sticks his finger in the leaking hole of a dam, only to be besieged by more holes bursting through. In my analogy, the surging water represents the Chinese economy, and the dam represents the central government’s mass of…
A new era is beginning in Argentina, now that the Kirchner dynasty was finally voted out of office in November. President Mauricio Macri has vowed extensive change for the country, in areas ranging from foreign policy to the domestic economy, advocating an increased role for the private sector at the expense of a reduced role for the government. Argentine assets…
Oil prices have been under pressure, and it’s all about supply. The world is experiencing a glut of oil production, with no likely slowdown until the end of 2016. The market rout looks to continue well into the first quarter of next year, with price per barrel heading into the $20s, as oil producers keep pumping and large regions of…
Two weeks ago I traveled to South Africa, in order to create a two-year economic and investment roadmap. After seven days of meetings, I returned with a bearish view for the economy both cyclically and structurally. Unlike previous visits over the past decade, I could find very few glimmers of hope. Gloom is hard to trade on, as the timeframe…
A few years ago I hurt my elbow, and after six weeks of pain, I finally went to the doctor. He gave me a few choices. First, he suggested I try physical therapy, some anti-inflammatory medicine, and lots of ice. With lots of work and attention, I would probably have pain for another 3-4 weeks and then slowly it would…
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