Hungary has come through the financial crisis as somewhat of an unusual success story. As the country entered the Great Recession saddled by the largest external debt burden in the European region, its bonds, equity markets and currencies took a major hit which lasted years. Hungary became the country that analysts loved to hate, as the poor economic outlook was…
Brazil is a macroeconomic and political hot mess at the moment, experiencing a deep recession and a political quagmire reaching to the Presidency. Despite this, after a horrendous performance in 2015, Brazil’s currency the real performed best in the world for the first quarter of 2016 surging over 10% against the US dollar, and both equity and debt markets rallied…
China’s leaders just wrapped up their annual National People’s Congress meeting, where policy, economic, market and domestic objectives are solidified in order to create a five-year plan. While the plan covers many areas, analysts globally tend to focus on the economic growth rate that leaders plan to deliver. This year, Premier Li claimed China will grow between 6.5-7%, and signaled…
In the U.S., it feels like spring has finally sprung this last week, along with hopes that the bottom in oil (and stock market) prices is finally behind us. But is it time to buy? There are very clear reasons why oil has bounced hard so far this month, but it is less obvious that these factors are permanent. Looking…
Officials from the G20 – the group of twenty of the arguably most economically significant countries in the world – meet twice a year to discuss important global issues and to suggest possible policy responses. For financial markets, these events are often observed but are typically of little consequence to investors; by the time governments get around to meeting and…
The U.S stock markets have been oscillating between mayhem and malaise in 2016. In early days the volatility was blamed on China and its erratic stock markets. Volatility remains elevated, but malaise has set in as data last week confirmed fears of a slowdown in the U.S. economy. In the final quarter of 2015, the economy decelerated to a mere…
In just 15 trading days, oil prices have managed to plunge another 20%, after a fall of 29% in 2015 and 44% in 2014. While markets took these drops in stride in the past few years, something seems different about the volatile plunge so far in 2016. Why are oil prices so low? And why are the world’s asset markets…
When I think of all the mayhem that is currently Chinese markets, I picture the old Dutch proverb about the boy who sticks his finger in the leaking hole of a dam, only to be besieged by more holes bursting through. In my analogy, the surging water represents the Chinese economy, and the dam represents the central government’s mass of…
A new era is beginning in Argentina, now that the Kirchner dynasty was finally voted out of office in November. President Mauricio Macri has vowed extensive change for the country, in areas ranging from foreign policy to the domestic economy, advocating an increased role for the private sector at the expense of a reduced role for the government. Argentine assets…
Oil prices have been under pressure, and it’s all about supply. The world is experiencing a glut of oil production, with no likely slowdown until the end of 2016. The market rout looks to continue well into the first quarter of next year, with price per barrel heading into the $20s, as oil producers keep pumping and large regions of…
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